Pausanias Analysis

How sentence-model conclusions move under unreliable labels

Manual Label Sensitivity

Manual labels come from Pausanias book 3.rtf (Greta/Rosie). GPT labels are the active three-way original-myth-history-other run using gpt-5.4-mini.

959joined sentences
668exact agreements
0.701agreement rate
953exact-comparable rows

Manual vs GPT Confusion Matrix

Manual Label GPT HistoricalGPT MythicGPT Other Total
Historical 1961423 233
Mythic 2421758 299
Other / not highlighted 9274255 421
Mixed mythic+historical 330 6
Total 315308336 959

Refit Scenarios

The scenario models all use the same lemma TF-IDF logistic-regression setup as the current sentence analysis. Rows tagged other are not used in mythic-vs-historical fitting unless a scenario turns them into a mythic or historical sample.

ScenarioSampleHistoricalMythicFeaturesAccuracyHist F1Myth F1DownweightedStatus
GPT labels on manual Book 3 scope
Uses the active GPT-5.4-mini three-way tags, restricted to sentences that have manual Book 3 labels.
623 315 308 925 0.615 0.605 0.625 Available
Manual labels only
Uses Greta/Rosie manual labels; unhighlighted and mixed rows are dropped for mythic-vs-historical fitting.
532 233 299 745 0.699 0.636 0.744 Available
Agreement-only labels
Keeps only sentences where manual and GPT labels exactly agree as mythic or historical.
413 196 217 634 0.644 0.611 0.673 Available
GPT labels, disagreements downweighted
Uses GPT labels but gives manual/GPT disagreements 35% of the weight of agreement rows.
623 315 308 925 0.596 0.571 0.618 204 Available

Top Baseline Feature Stability

This table starts from the strongest GPT-labelled Book 3 coefficients and shows whether their direction survives manual-label and agreement-only refits.

FeatureBaseline DirectionGPT labels on manual Book 3 scopeManual labels onlyAgreement-only labelsGPT labels, disagreements downweightedPresentSign Stable
εἰμί mythic +1.674+1.281+1.905+1.645 4 yes
βασιλεύω historical -1.424-0.154-0.671-0.985 4 yes
ἄλλοσ historical -1.098-0.326-0.577-1.073 4 yes
εἰσ historical -0.993-1.087-0.800-0.972 4 yes
ἀπό mythic +0.911+0.821+1.147+0.828 4 yes
μή historical -0.869-1.075-0.892-0.908 4 yes
εἰμί καί mythic +0.857+0.139+0.148+0.666 4 yes
μάλιστα historical -0.856-0.896-0.699-0.870 4 yes
σύν historical -0.838-0.496-0.502-0.682 4 yes
δέ εἰμί mythic +0.819+0.336+0.619+0.674 4 yes
ἡγέομαι historical -0.810-0.726-0.567-0.711 4 yes
ποιέω δέ mythic +0.797+0.523+0.657+0.766 4 yes
δέ γίγνομαι mythic +0.770+0.141-0.034+0.680 4 no
εὑρίσκω mythic +0.752-0.144+0.475+0.551 4 no
ἀπό οὗτοσ mythic +0.750+0.623+0.445+0.732 4 yes
ὅτι mythic +0.745+0.707+0.878+0.697 4 yes
βασιλεία historical -0.730-0.782-0.720-0.730 4 yes
καί ἄλλοσ historical -0.729+0.150-0.302-0.639 4 no
ἔνθα mythic +0.728+0.381+0.520 3 yes
τότε historical -0.706-0.439-0.633-0.542 4 yes
ἔποσ mythic +0.703+0.319+0.689+0.683 4 yes
καί εἰμί mythic +0.679-0.557-0.035+0.360 4 no
πλησίον mythic +0.668+0.410+0.353+0.536 4 yes
ὁμοῦ historical -0.667-0.714-0.419-0.477 4 yes
πρίν mythic +0.667+0.259+0.292+0.525 4 yes
καί καί mythic +0.662+0.778+0.827+0.694 4 yes
ἐπί δέ historical -0.661-0.378+0.156-0.424 4 no
πολύσ historical -0.647-0.497-0.699-0.400 4 yes
οἶδα mythic +0.642+0.274+0.088+0.531 4 yes
εἰσ οὗτοσ mythic +0.634+0.335+0.216+0.413 4 yes

Monte Carlo Label-Noise Stress Test

This stress test resamples labels from the observed manual-vs-GPT confusion rates and refits the lemma model repeatedly. It is a sensitivity diagnostic, not a claim that either label set is ground truth.

30noise runs
0.591mean accuracy
0.492-0.684accuracy range
536.0mean fitted rows
FeaturePresentPositiveNegativeMean CoefMinMaxSign Stability
εἰμί 30 30 0 +1.233 +0.740 +1.921 1.00
βασιλεύω 30 0 30 -0.789 -1.243 -0.247 1.00
ἄλλοσ 30 1 29 -0.569 -1.388 +0.112 0.97
εἰσ 30 1 29 -0.908 -1.605 +0.220 0.97
ἀπό 30 29 1 +0.672 -0.015 +1.436 0.97
μή 30 0 30 -0.535 -1.005 -0.042 1.00
εἰμί καί 30 24 6 +0.311 -0.730 +0.959 0.80
μάλιστα 30 1 29 -0.464 -1.025 +0.421 0.97
σύν 30 1 29 -0.469 -1.150 +0.059 0.97
δέ εἰμί 30 28 2 +0.683 -0.202 +1.582 0.93
ἡγέομαι 27 1 26 -0.470 -0.945 +0.090 0.96
ποιέω δέ 30 25 5 +0.390 -0.373 +0.964 0.83
δέ γίγνομαι 21 13 8 +0.063 -0.381 +0.667 0.62
εὑρίσκω 30 26 4 +0.208 -0.596 +0.872 0.87
ἀπό οὗτοσ 29 27 2 +0.408 -0.081 +0.776 0.93
ὅτι 30 27 3 +0.332 -0.123 +0.886 0.90
βασιλεία 30 0 30 -0.518 -0.980 -0.116 1.00
καί ἄλλοσ 30 2 28 -0.459 -1.055 +0.124 0.93
ἔνθα 28 28 0 +0.501 +0.206 +0.838 1.00
τότε 30 1 29 -0.553 -1.016 +0.037 0.97
ἔποσ 24 23 1 +0.470 -0.013 +0.684 0.96
καί εἰμί 30 22 8 +0.266 -0.450 +0.897 0.73
πλησίον 29 20 9 +0.221 -0.301 +0.921 0.69
ὁμοῦ 30 0 30 -0.535 -1.046 -0.026 1.00
πρίν 29 28 1 +0.385 -0.014 +0.643 0.97