Pausanias Analysis - Earliest Attestation Year

Earliest Attestation Year

The earliest latest-evidence year among eligible dated MANTO relationships involving the focal place.

Stored model field: earliest_attestation_year

-0.464standardized coefficient

Does not survivecurrent direction

157observations summarized

Temporal evidencefeature group

How It Is Calculated

Take the minimum evidence_latest_year across eligible edges touching the place. BCE years are negative. Places with no dated edge use the internal sentinel 200 and are reported separately on this page.

What a higher value means

Among attested places, a higher value means the earliest available evidence is later in time.

Important qualification. The measure uses each edge's latest admissible evidence date, not necessarily the date when a tradition originated.

Current Model Cohort

These descriptive statistics use the current labelled cohort after aliases have been collapsed to one row per MANTO place.

98 no eligible dated attestation observations are reported separately and excluded from the descriptive year statistics below.

Group	N	Minimum	Q1	Median	Mean	Q3	Maximum
All labelled places	157	700 BCE	479 BCE	150 BCE	260 BCE	79 CE	79 CE
Survives	124	700 BCE	534 BCE	220 BCE	269 BCE	79 CE	79 CE
Does not survive	33	700 BCE	479 BCE	150 BCE	228 BCE	79 CE	79 CE

Examples from the Current Data

Examples are descriptive checks on the calculated feature. Their outcome labels report what Pausanias says; they do not establish that the feature caused survival or abandonment.

Examples with high recorded values

Place	MANTO ID	Value	Pausanias reports
🌍 Acriai (Laconia)	`10149418`	79 CE	Survives
🌍 Aegina (Epidauria)	`11308185`	79 CE	Survives
🌍 Aigai (Euboia)	`11308145`	79 CE	Does not survive
🌍 Aigai (unlocatable)	`9882469`	79 CE	Does not survive
🌍 Aigeira (Achaia)	`10274694`	79 CE	Survives
🌍 Aigion (Achaia)	`9718745`	79 CE	Survives

Examples with low recorded values

Place	MANTO ID	Value	Pausanias reports
🌍 Aigina (city)	`10191987`	700 BCE	Survives
🌍 Anthedon (Boiotia)	`9651961`	700 BCE	Survives
🌍 Arcadia	`8228863`	700 BCE	Survives
🌍 Argos (city)	`8228853`	700 BCE	Survives
🌍 Calydon (Aitolia)	`8254028`	700 BCE	Survives
🌍 Copai (Boiotia)	`9651950`	700 BCE	Survives

No eligible dated attestation

Place	MANTO ID	Value	Pausanias reports
🌍 Abia (Messenia)	`10113505`	200 CE	Survives
🌍 Acacesion (Arcadia)	`10126185`	200 CE	Survives
🌍 Ace (Arcadia)	`10214517`	200 CE	Survives
🌍 Acharnai (Attica)	`10153056`	200 CE	Survives
🌍 Agrai (Attica)	`10151548`	200 CE	Survives
🌍 Aigiai (Laconia)	`10146647`	200 CE	Survives

Interpretation in the Predictive Model

Its current standardized coefficient is -0.464, pointing toward does not survive. This means that a one-standard-deviation increase changes the fitted log odds in that direction while the other included features are held fixed.

Because the connectedness features are correlated and the model's out-of-fold performance is weak, this is a conditional association—not a standalone ranking, causal effect, or historical explanation.

Related Features

Data Scope

The feature is calculated from MANTO release 19446255 using evidence dated strictly before Pausanias.
The current labelled cohort contains 255 distinct MANTO places.
The prediction target is whether Pausanias reports a place as surviving or not surviving, not its modern archaeological condition.
Feature values and examples may change when MANTO releases, links, labels, or feature definitions are revised.

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