Pausanias Analysis

Sentence-level words and phrases that predict skepticism vs. non-skepticism

Model Performance Metrics

The following metrics are from the logistic regression classifier's performance on the test set:

Class Precision Recall F1-Score Support
Non-skeptical 0.905 0.755 0.823 974
Skeptical 0.278 0.544 0.368 169
Overall Accuracy 0.724 1143

Sentence Predictors of Skeptical Content

Sort by:
Word/Phrase English Coefficient Skeptical Count Non-skeptical Count p-value q-value
εἴτε whether 2.8824 14 3 1.03e-09 3.43e-07
ὡσ as; like; how; that; when 2.7474 135 431 2.49e-09 6.23e-07
ὑπό under; by (of agent) 2.5840 111 345 2.71e-08 4.52e-06
δῶρον gift 2.4157 10 13 0.000975 0.0279
γίγνομαι καί I become, and 2.4091 12 17 0.000542 0.0187
οὗτοσ this (man) 2.3894 284 1082 7.95e-12 7.95e-09
κομίζω I bring, carry, convey 2.3523 23 52 0.00049 0.0181
εἰκόσ likely; probable; reasonable 2.3128 15 16 9.85e-06 0.000821
οὐ not 2.1086 179 615 4.4e-10 2.2e-07
ἅιδησ Hades 2.0674 10 7 3e-05 0.00176
εἰ if 2.0644 34 65 1.13e-06 0.000161
μεγαρεύσ a Megarian 2.0617 19 31 5.73e-05 0.00275
λόγοσ word; speech; account; reason; argument 2.0597 56 151 3.88e-06 0.000432
γίγνομαι I become; am born; happen 2.0005 111 401 1.51e-05 0.00108
ὀλυμπικόσ Olympic; of Olympia 1.8229 7 8 0.00343 0.07
σαφήσ clear 1.7855 8 9 0.00163 0.0417
δόξα opinion 1.7719 12 23 0.00417 0.0811
κατασκευάζω to prepare, construct, equip 1.7530 6 8 0.0118 0.138
διάφοροσ different, at variance, hostile 1.7443 10 21 0.0148 0.154
δέ ἄν but/and; ἄν is a modal particle indicating potentiality (“would/might”) 1.7245 13 12 1.36e-05 0.00105
ἄιδω I sing 1.6963 8 15 0.0176 0.168
οὐ μήν not, however 1.6820 13 10 3.7e-06 0.000432
ὀρέστησ Orestes 1.6790 8 22 0.0942 0.424
ποσειδῶν Poseidon 1.6663 22 72 0.0278 0.226
αὐτόσ self; he/she/it; the same (with the article) 1.6552 258 1172 0.000128 0.0058
πρῶτοσ first 1.6492 50 141 3.64e-05 0.00202
χάρισ grace 1.6428 7 12 0.0183 0.168
εἰκάζω to liken; to conjecture, infer, guess 1.6352 14 31 0.00576 0.0959
ἑπτά seven 1.5958 6 12 0.0501 0.319
ποίησισ poetry, making, creation 1.5774 7 8 0.00343 0.07

Sentence Predictors of Non-skeptical Content

Sort by:
Word/Phrase English Coefficient Skeptical Count Non-skeptical Count p-value q-value
βωμόσ altar -2.0131 5 98 0.00104 0.029
ἕκαστοσ each -1.8317 1 69 0.000273 0.0112
μοῖρα fate, destiny; share, portion -1.7811 1 44 0.0105 0.133
γραφή writing; (in Athenian law) public indictment -1.6428 1 53 0.00319 0.0679
γίγνομαι δέ and I become -1.6116 4 48 0.172 0.556
δηλόω to make clear; to show; to reveal; to indicate -1.6022 5 67 0.0369 0.272
χείρ hand -1.4412 1 51 0.00493 0.0864
ἀποστέλλω I send out -1.4265 1 48 0.00727 0.109
ἑαυτοῦ of himself/itself; his/its own -1.4172 9 84 0.134 0.501
μεσσήνιοσ Messenian -1.4166 11 120 0.0238 0.205
λέσχη clubhouse; meeting-hall -1.3933 0 18 0.095 0.424
ἄκροσ topmost -1.3841 0 33 0.011 0.135
ἄγω I lead; I bring -1.3723 14 149 0.0144 0.153
καταλαμβάνω to seize, overtake, catch; grasp, understand -1.3440 0 35 0.00682 0.107
ἄξιοσ worthy; deserving -1.3404 2 72 0.00139 0.0365
καί παρά and beside/at/from/to/along/contrary to -1.3130 1 37 0.0357 0.266
ἐναντίοσ opposite; contrary; hostile -1.3093 1 35 0.0345 0.265
αἰγινήτησ an Aeginetan (man from Aegina) -1.3003 0 24 0.0395 0.272
ὑπό αὐτόσ under him -1.2858 0 19 0.0982 0.429
μέλλω be about to, intend (to) -1.2678 3 64 0.0141 0.153
βοιωτόσ Boeotian -1.2582 1 32 0.0511 0.32
ἐπί θάλασσα on the sea -1.2536 1 46 0.00706 0.109
ἱερόν temple; sanctuary -1.2514 14 120 0.128 0.488
ἵστημι to set, make stand; establish; stop; (intrans.) stand -1.2348 4 78 0.00724 0.109
πλησίον near; nearby; close (to); neighbor (as a noun) -1.2278 8 80 0.102 0.443
ὡσ ἐπί for the most part -1.2258 0 18 0.095 0.424
δύο two -1.2087 5 51 0.18 0.571
μάλιστα especially; very much; certainly -1.1975 23 200 0.0412 0.28
τόλμημα daring deed -1.1857 0 23 0.0387 0.272
ἱερόσ καί holy and -1.1777 2 37 0.111 0.448

Simplified Checklist Version

This reduced model keeps only the words or phrases with q-value below 0.1, then turns them into a simple checklist.

Start at -0.88 points. If one of the items below appears at least once, add its points once. If the final score ends above 0, classify the text as Skeptical. That is the same as saying the listed word-points must add up past +0.88.

Full logistic model: 72.4% | Simplified checklist: 72.8% | Always guess Non-skeptical: 85.2%

This shorter model uses 60 statistically strong vocabulary items.

These confusion matrices show which texts each approach gets right and where it makes false alarms or misses.

Full Logistic Model

Predicted
Non-skeptical Skeptical
Actual Non-skeptical 735 239
Skeptical 77 92

Simplified Checklist

Predicted
Non-skeptical Skeptical
Actual Non-skeptical 743 231
Skeptical 80 89

Always Guess Non-skeptical

Predicted
Non-skeptical Skeptical
Actual Non-skeptical 974 0
Skeptical 169 0
Word/Phrase English Points If Seen Pushes Toward q-value
γραφή writing; (in Athenian law) public indictment -5.12 Non-skeptical 0.0679
χείρ hand -4.87 Non-skeptical 0.0864
οὐ μήν not, however +3.89 Skeptical 0.000432
εἴτε whether +2.80 Skeptical 3.43e-07
ἅιδησ Hades +2.21 Skeptical 0.00176
ὀλυμπικόσ Olympic; of Olympia +2.09 Skeptical 0.07
ἕκαστοσ each -2.05 Non-skeptical 0.0112
δῶρον gift +1.94 Skeptical 0.0279
κρήτη Crete +1.89 Skeptical 0.0345
γίγνομαι καί I become, and +1.84 Skeptical 0.0187
μήν month; indeed, surely -1.81 Non-skeptical 0.0112
σαφήσ clear +1.59 Skeptical 0.0417
δέ ἄν but/and; ἄν is a modal particle indicating potentiality (“would/might”) +1.53 Skeptical 0.00105
εἰκόσ likely; probable; reasonable +1.51 Skeptical 0.000821
ὡσ καί just as +1.47 Skeptical 0.0959
δράκων serpent; dragon +1.47 Skeptical 0.0856
ἄξιοσ worthy; deserving -1.41 Non-skeptical 0.0365
ποίησισ poetry, making, creation +1.38 Skeptical 0.07
ὁμολογέω to agree, admit, or confess +1.29 Skeptical 0.00166
μεγαρεύσ a Megarian +1.26 Skeptical 0.00275
κομίζω I bring, carry, convey +1.26 Skeptical 0.0181
εἰκάζω to liken; to conjecture, infer, guess +1.12 Skeptical 0.0959
βωμόσ altar -1.08 Non-skeptical 0.029
δόξα opinion +1.03 Skeptical 0.0811
νεκρόσ dead; corpse +0.85 Skeptical 0.00256
λόγοσ word; speech; account; reason; argument +0.80 Skeptical 0.000432
οὐδέν nothing +0.79 Skeptical 0.0439
ἔτοσ year -0.77 Non-skeptical 0.0959
τίθημι to put, place, set; establish; appoint +0.72 Skeptical 0.000821
πρῶτοσ first +0.70 Skeptical 0.00202
εἰ if +0.69 Skeptical 0.000161
μήτηρ mother +0.67 Skeptical 0.0811
ὅστισ whoever +0.64 Skeptical 0.067
ὄνομα ἀπό name from +0.62 Skeptical 0.0236
ὄνομα name +0.62 Skeptical 3.5e-06
ὑπό under; by (of agent) +0.60 Skeptical 4.52e-06
θυγάτηρ daughter +0.58 Skeptical 0.0187
εἰ δέ but if +0.57 Skeptical 0.00275
οὐδείσ no one +0.57 Skeptical 0.0626
μέν οὐ indeed not +0.56 Skeptical 0.0236
φαίνω to bring to light; to show; to reveal +0.52 Skeptical 0.0856
καί οὗτοσ and this man +0.50 Skeptical 0.000515
ὀνομάζω to name; to call; to mention +0.50 Skeptical 0.0128
εἴην I would be; may I be +0.46 Skeptical 0.0198
οὗτοσ this (man) +0.43 Skeptical 7.95e-09
δέ οὐ but not +0.42 Skeptical 0.0112
παῖσ child +0.41 Skeptical 0.0199
τε and -0.38 Non-skeptical 0.0859
αὐτόσ self; he/she/it; the same (with the article) +0.37 Skeptical 0.0058
οὐ not +0.37 Skeptical 2.2e-07
γῆ earth, land +0.36 Skeptical 0.0785
ὡσ as; like; how; that; when +0.34 Skeptical 6.23e-07
καί ὡσ and as +0.34 Skeptical 0.0236
ἀπό from, away from +0.26 Skeptical 0.0679
ἐπεί when, after, since +0.26 Skeptical 0.0864
τισ someone, anyone; a certain (one) +0.26 Skeptical 0.0432
γίγνομαι I become; am born; happen +0.23 Skeptical 0.00108
ἀνήρ man +0.16 Skeptical 0.0439
γε at least +0.12 Skeptical 0.067
ἄν would; might; could; -ever (as in whoever/whenever) +0.04 Skeptical 0.00136